If you don't know much about the Hyundai Australian League (HAL) then the top 6 teams enter a place off where the winner takes all (so to speak.. there is a little bit more to it.. if you want to know how it runs please contact me.. i don't want to side track!)
| Pl | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
| Brisbane Roar | 26 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 53 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 46 |
| Adelaide United | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 43 |
| Gold Coast United | 24 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 39 |
| Melbourne Victory | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 33 |
| Melbourne Heart | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 32 |
| Newcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 31 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 29 |
| Sydney FC | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| Perth Glory | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 23 |
| North Queensland Fury | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 19 |
Above is the table. The Phoenix currently reside in 7th place with 2 games in hand over the Heart. We also have a better goal difference (both horrible!) and you could say an easier run into the final. Newcastle Jets are on the same amount of points, have a goal difference 6 better than the Phoenix and have played the same amount of games. Victory sitting 4 points ahead of us, the Phoenix, having played a game extra. Again, they have a superior goal difference...
So, how hard is it for the Phoenix?
The Phoenix play the following (home/away in brackets)
Perth Glory FC (H)
Brisbane Roar FC (A)
Brisbane Roar FC (A)
Newcastle Jets FC (H)
Adelaide United FC (A)
Sydney FC (A)
North Queensland Fury (H)
You could bank on the Phoenix getting 9 points at home. Glory, Jets, and NQF will have it tough against the Phoenix in front of a packed Yellowfever (http://www.yellowfever.co.nz) You would hope the crowd turns out in force for the games. The game against the Jets on the 30th is ONLY $5 to enter with the proceeds going to the #QLDfloodrelief (See here http://www.yellowfever.co.nz/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=14935)
The game against Brisbane could be considered as "sending over a B side." Being blunt, the Phoenix don't stand a chance against a rampant Roar. With it being rescheduled to midweek it seems logical for Ricki Herbert to utilize the squad he has. We could expect TOTO and Diego to play at Skilled Park.
Adelaide and Sydney will be tough as well. The Phoenix need something out of those games. A draw would be nice.
On that calculation that gives the Phoenix 11 points. Which puts them onto 40.
Obviously some players need to stand up. Watch out for Magic Rojas...
Melbourne out of 15 points have a difficult run too. The Melbourne derby could swing either way. I'll pick a draw to be safe! They will beat NQF (who seem to have given up) but the rest of the games will be touch and go. I think they'll beat the Jets, lose to Adelaide and draw with the Gold Coast. That will be 8 points from 15. They'll reach 41.
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Heart FC (H)
North Queensland Fury (A)
Gold Coast United (H)
Newcastle Jets FC (H)
Adelaide United FC (A)
I don't see the Heart beating the Roar, or CCM. I'd say they'll end up with 4 more points. A draw v the Victory, a win against Sydney. That'll put the on 36.
Melboure Heart
Melbourne Victory FC (A)
Brisbane Roar FC (A)
Central Coast Mariners FC (H)
Sydney FC (H)
Lastly, the Jets (who are hit with injury problems.) With out some of their key players, it seems they may lose the first 4 away games of the final 6. A win against Sydney and Perth will give them 6 points. Jets to end with 37 points. I just don't see them having the depth. (article here regarding the injuries http://au.fourfourtwo.com/News/193899,more-injury-woe-for-branko.aspx)
Newcastle Jets
Gold Coast United (A)Wellington Phoenix FC (A)
Melbourne Victory FC (A)
Sydney FC (H)
Perth Glory FC (H)
Central Coast Mariners FC (A)
In summary,
Victory - 41 points, Phoenix - 40 points, Jets, 37 points and Heart on 36.
I don't see Perth/Sydney having any chance.
I may be optimistic but I do see the "Ring of Fire" to be too daunting for travelling teams. The only thing the Phoenix have to do is get something on the road.
These are my blinkered views. Yes they may be biased towards the Phoenix, but as a football fan i've learnt to have some faith.
Got any questions? Flick me a tweet -http://twitter.com/#!/kiwiscotsman or check out the Yellowfever forums, http://www.yellowfever.co.nz/default.asp
Cheers, @kiwiscotsman
